MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (Trami) is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon or evening, October 25, but parts of the country still have moderate to heavy rain and tropical cyclone wind signals remain in effect.
In a briefing past 11 am on Friday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kristine was located 255 kilometers west northwest of Bacnotan, La Union, or 255 kilometers west southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur.
The severe tropical storm is moving west northwest over the West Philippine Sea at a slower 15 kilometers per hour, compared to 25 km/h early Friday.
It still has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Though Kristine is on its way out of PAR, moderate to heavy rain may still hit Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Palawan, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, the southern part of Negros Oriental, and the Zamboanga Peninsula on Friday. Floods and landslides remain possible.
On Thursday, October 24, Kristine had made landfall in Divilacan, Isabela, then crossed Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur. It emerged over Ilocos Sur’s coastal waters on the same day but was generally slow-moving, and continued to unleash rain and winds.
Before hitting land, Kristine already triggered moderate to torrential rain that caused massive floods, with Bicol among the hardest-hit regions.
Tropical cyclone wind signals have been lifted for some areas, but the following remain under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 as of 11 am on Friday:
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Abulug, Pamplona)
- Babuyan Islands
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Benguet
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- Nueva Ecija
- Tarlac
- Pampanga
- Zambales
- northern part of Bataan (Morong, Hermosa, Dinalupihan, Bagac, Orani, Samal, Abucay, Balanga City)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Batanes
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Aurora
- Bulacan
- rest of Bataan
- Metro Manila
- Cavite
- Batangas
- Laguna
- Rizal
- Quezon
- Occidental Mindoro
- Oriental Mindoro
- Marinduque
- Romblon
- northern part of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, San Vicente, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Burias Island
- northern part of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)
- northern part of Antique (Libertad, Pandan) including Caluya Islands
Signal No. 3 was the highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Kristine.
PAGASA also said “the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Kristine, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow” are still bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Friday, October 25
- Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Davao Region
Saturday, October 26
- Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte
Sunday, October 27
- Palawan, Romblon, Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte
In addition, there is still a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges “with peak heights of around 1 to 2 meters above normal tide levels” in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales in the next 48 hours.
As Kristine moves over the West Philippine Sea, it could gradually intensify, and the possibility that it may strengthen into a typhoon in the coming days is not being ruled out. “However, a weakening trend is expected by early next week due to a possible surge of northeasterly windflow over the West Philippine
Sea,” added PAGASA.
The weather bureau also reiterated the possibility of Kristine continuing to move west — or away from PAR — over the West Philippine Sea until Saturday, October 26, before it makes a U-turn or a loop counterclockwise from Sunday, October 27, to Monday, October 28. Following this U-turn, it may head east — or toward PAR.
“However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the tropical cyclone east of the PAR region and the behavior of other synoptic weather systems [such as the northeasterly windflow and southwesterly windflow] surrounding Kristine while over the West Philippine Sea,” PAGASA said.
The tropical cyclone east of PAR that the weather bureau is referring to is a tropical depression, which was located 2,235 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 10 am on Friday, moving northwest at 20 km/h. It still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
The tropical depression could enter PAR on Saturday or Sunday. It would be given the local name Leon.
Meanwhile, the low pressure area outside PAR that PAGASA was also monitoring has since become part of the circulation of the tropical depression.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chenel Dominguez said the occurrence of the Fujiwhara effect involving Kristine and the potential Leon is not being ruled out, though chances are currently slim.
The Fujiwhara effect refers to the interaction of two tropical cyclones, which can happen when they are less than 1,400 kilometers away from each other.
The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains that if one tropical cyclone is “a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed.” If the two tropical cyclones are “closer in strength,” they can “gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge,” or just move around a common center “before shooting off on their own paths.”
For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, up to very rough or high seas are expected in the seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan (waves up to 7 meters high); remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region as well as seaboards of Cagayan Valley and Bataan (waves up to 5.5 meters high); western seaboard of Occidental Mindoro and seaboard of northern Aurora (waves up to 5 meters high); and seaboard of Calamian Islands (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Up to rough seas are seen in the western seaboard of northern Palawan including Kalayaan Islands (waves up to 4 meters high); remaining western seaboard of Palawan, western seaboard of Antique, western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental, remaining seaboard of Aurora, as well as seaboard of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands (waves up to 3.5 meters high); and remaining seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Up to moderate seas will persist in the remaining seaboards of the country (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
Kristine is the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024 and the first for October. – Rappler.com