MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of raising Signal No. 5, the highest tropical cyclone wind signal, as Typhoon Julian (Krathon) intensified again early Monday morning, September 30.
Julian’s maximum sustained winds increased from 155 kilometers per hour to 175 km/h, already nearing super typhoon status.
Under the classification of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.
Julian’s gustiness also increased from 190 km/h to 215 km/h.
As of 7 am on Monday, the typhoon remained over the coastal waters of Balintang Island, Calayan, Cagayan. It is moving west northwest at only 10 km/h.
PAGASA still expects Julian to move generally west northwest over the Balintang Channel on Monday and pass very close to Balintang Island and Batanes. “A landfall scenario over these areas remains likely,” said the weather bureau.
But even if the typhoon does not make landfall, it will be “at its closest to Batanes and Babuyan Islands” from Monday morning to afternoon.
Here is the updated list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 8 am on Monday:
Signal No. 4
Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property
- Batanes
- northern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island)
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- rest of Babuyan Islands
- northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- Apayao
- northern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Licuan-Baay, San Juan, Lagayan, Lagangilang, Dolores, Daguioman, Danglas, La Paz)
- northern part of Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Balbalan, Tabuk City, Rizal)
- Ilocos Norte
- northern part of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- rest of Abra
- rest of Kalinga
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- Isabela
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- Aurora
- northern and eastern parts of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Rizal, Laur, Pantabangan, Science City of Muñoz, Gabaldon, Carranglan, San Jose City, Lupao, Talugtug, Bongabon, Llanera, Talavera, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad)
- Polillo Islands
PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 4 will feel “the peak of devastating typhoon-force winds” between Monday morning and afternoon.
The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Monday, September 30
- Pangasinan, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Wednesday, October 2
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra
Meanwhile, PAGASA maintained its rainfall forecast for Julian, still warning parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon that floods and landslides are likely.
Monday, September 30
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, Benguet
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Tuesday, October 1
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
Wednesday, October 2
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
On Monday, other areas in Northern Luzon not mentioned above may have rain with gusty winds from Julian.
The trough or extension of the typhoon can also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and much of Central Luzon.
The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.
In a new storm surge warning issued at 8 am on Monday, PAGASA said Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte face a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, very high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 14 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 10 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough seas are expected in the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) as well as the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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PAGASA said Julian is projected to begin recurving on Tuesday, October 1, and may also intensify into a super typhoon during this time.
Julian will then turn generally northeast toward Taiwan on Wednesday, October 2, and start to weaken due to the “rugged terrain” there. It might make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday morning or afternoon as a typhoon. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), right along the boundary.
“Julian may briefly leave [PAR] during this period but bulletins are expected to continue,” the weather bureau said.
Afterwards, Julian will cross Taiwan and emerge over the waters east of the country by Thursday morning, October 3. It may then head northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, still as a typhoon.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com