MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Julian (Krathon) continued to intensify late Sunday evening, September 29, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 140 kilometers per hour to 150 km/h.
The typhoon’s gustiness is now up to 185 km/h from the previous 170 km/h, based on the 11 pm bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Sunday.
As of 10 pm, Julian was located 125 kilometers southeast of Basco, Batanes, moving west at the same speed of 15 km/h.
The typhoon is still projected to move generally west northwest until Tuesday morning, October 1, over the Balintang and Bashi channels.
It could make landfall in Batanes, or pass very close to the province, on Monday morning or afternoon, September 30.
Then on Tuesday afternoon, it will be “sharply turning northward toward Taiwan,” where it could also make landfall on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, October 2. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
PAGASA also said Julian may strengthen further in the next 48 hours, and possibly intensify into a super typhoon before hitting the southern part of Taiwan. “In this case, Julian will pass near or over Batanes during its intensification period,” added the weather bureau.
Aside from Batanes, Babuyan Island — which belongs to the island group of the same name — has been placed under Signal No. 4. These are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Sunday:
Signal No. 4
Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property
- Batanes
- northeastern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island)
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- rest of Babuyan Islands
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- mainland Cagayan
- Apayao
- Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- Isabela
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- northern and central parts of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis)
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Monday, September 30
- Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Meanwhile, the weather bureau updated its rainfall forecast for Julian. The typhoon will continue to trigger rain in Northern Luzon in the coming days, especially on Monday, when it could hit Batanes.
Sunday evening, September 29, to Monday evening, September 30
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, Benguet
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Monday evening, September 30, to Tuesday evening, October 1
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra
Tuesday evening, October 1, to Wednesday evening, October 2
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
On Monday, other areas in Northern Luzon not mentioned above may have rain with gusty winds from Julian.
The trough or extension of the typhoon can also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and much of Central Luzon.
The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.
Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern part of mainland Cagayan still face a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, high to very high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 14 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 8 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough sea conditions are expected in the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5.5 meters high) as well as the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough sea conditions will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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After Julian’s possible landfall in Taiwan, it may turn north northeast and emerge over the waters east of Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Then it could speed up north northeast over the East China Sea and leave PAR on Thursday, October 3.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com