MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Julian (Krathon) slightly intensified again as it “meandered” or wobbled over the Philippine Sea on Saturday evening, September 28.
In a briefing past 11 pm on Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian now has maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour from the previous 75 km/h.
The tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 105 km/h from 90 km/h.
As of 10 pm, Julian was located 345 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, moving southwest at a slightly slower 10 km/h from 15 km/h.
PAGASA now expects Julian to strengthen into a severe tropical storm by Sunday morning, September 29, then into a typhoon by Sunday evening.
There is still a “high chance of rapid intensification,” and the possibility of Julian reaching super typhoon status is “not ruled out,” the weather bureau said.
Based on Julian’s latest forecast track, it may head generally west northwest to northwest until Tuesday, October 1, toward the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area, then north to north northeast over the waters east of Taiwan from Tuesday onwards. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
From Monday, September 30, to early Tuesday morning, Julian is “highly likely” to make landfall in Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands, or pass very close to their area, which is considered extreme Northern Luzon. The tropical cyclone will also be closest to extreme Northern Luzon at or near peak intensity.
Below is the updated list of areas under Signal No. 1, or those seeing strong winds from Julian, as of 11 pm on Saturday.
- Batanes
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Isabela
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- eastern and central parts of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis, Sadanga, Barlig, Bontoc)
- eastern part of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista, Mayoyao)
- Ilocos Norte
- northern part of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Ildefonso, San Vicente)
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards [Julian’s circulation] may also bring strong to gale-force gusts” to these areas:
Sunday, September 29
- Aurora, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
Monday, September 30
- Aurora, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
The weather bureau also warned Northern Luzon that Julian will continue to trigger rain in the coming days. Floods and landslides are possible.
Saturday evening, September 28, to Sunday evening, September 29
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte
Sunday evening, September 29, to Monday evening, September 30
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet
Monday evening, September 30, to Tuesday evening, October 1
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region
In the early hours of Sunday, scattered rain and thunderstorms due to Julian may also hit the rest of Northern Luzon, as well as Central Luzon and Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
The rest of the country, not affected by the tropical storm, will continue to have generally fair weather, though there may be isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
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In the next 24 hours, very rough sea conditions are expected in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 6.5 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 5.5 meters high). PAGASA said travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Rough sea conditions are likely in the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 4 meters high), the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte and the remaining seaboard of Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high), and the seaboards of Isabela and the northern part of Aurora (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Moderate sea conditions will be seen in the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
It may exit PAR on Wednesday, October 2.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Jebi, located outside PAR at 2,125 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon as of 8 pm on Saturday.
The tropical storm is moving northwest at a slower 10 km/h from the previous 20 km/h.
It still has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
The weather bureau previously said Jebi is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com