MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Julian slowed down over the Philippine Sea before dawn on Saturday, September 28, while maintaining its strength.
Julian was last spotted 400 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, moving south at only 10 kilometers per hour from the previous 20 km/h.
It still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
But the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian is still expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Saturday; a severe tropical storm on Sunday, September 29; and a typhoon by Monday, September 30.
“There is an increasing likelihood of rapid intensification, and the possibility of [Julian] reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out,” PAGASA reiterated.
Julian remains projected to follow “a looping path over the waters east of Batanes and Cagayan in the next five days.” But it might make landfall in Batanes by Monday afternoon or evening as a typhoon.
PAGASA updated its rainfall forecast for Julian as of 5 am on Saturday, adding a warning for intense to torrential rain on Monday. Rain for the weekend will be moderate to intense in parts of Northern Luzon, so floods and landslides are possible.
Saturday, September 28
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan
Sunday, September 29
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Batanes, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
Monday, September 30
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Babuyan Islands
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region
Other areas in the country, which are not affected by the tropical depression, may only have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Saturday.
For strong winds, two more municipalities in Isabela were placed under Signal No. 1. Here is the list as of 5 am on Saturday:
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- northeastern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano)
- eastern part of Apayao (Luna, Pudtol, Santa Marcela, Flora)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 4.
The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards [Julian’s circulation] may also bring strong to gale-force gusts” to these areas:
Saturday, September 28
- Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Sunday, September 29
- Aurora, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol, Aklan, northern part of Antique
Monday, September 30
- Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol
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Meanwhile, rough sea conditions persist in the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands as well as the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 4 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Moderate sea conditions will continue in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
It could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday evening, October 2, or early Thursday morning, October 3.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Jebi, located outside PAR at 2,405 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon as of 3 am on Saturday.
The tropical storm is moving north northwest at a faster 20 km/h from the previous 10 km/h.
It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
The weather bureau previously said Jebi is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com