MANILA, Philippines – Ofel (Usagi) strengthened from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm on Tuesday afternoon, November 12, while Nika (Toraji) weakened from a severe tropical storm into a tropical storm and left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 2 pm.
In a briefing past 5 pm on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ofel now has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour from the previous 85 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 115 km/h from 105 km/h.
Ofel is still projected to “steadily intensify.” It may strengthen into a typhoon on Wednesday afternoon or evening, November 13, and “possibly make landfall at peak intensity.”
As of 4 pm on Tuesday, Ofel was located 780 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes. It slightly slowed down from 35 km/h to 30 km/h while moving west northwest, but remains relatively fast.
PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday afternoon or evening, November 14. Afterwards, it may “emerge over the Luzon Strait,” shift more northwest on Friday, November 15, then behave “erratically” during the weekend.
But the weather bureau noted that Ofel’s track may still change, since “two scenarios are emerging”:
- “a west northwestward track with a land crossing that is further south of the present scenario”
- “a recurving track to the right of the present forecast which will bring Ofel mainly offshore,” off the coast of Northern Luzon
Signal No. 1 might be raised for parts of Cagayan Valley late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, in anticipation of strong winds from Ofel. This would give lead time of 36 hours for preparations.
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the severe tropical storm will bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Wednesday, November 13
- Catanduanes
Thursday, November 14
- Quezon, northern part of Camarines Norte, northern part of Camarines Sur, northern part of Catanduanes
Friday, November 15
- eastern part of Isabela, northern part of Aurora
For rainfall, PAGASA released an updated advisory at 5 pm on Tuesday. Here are the areas which are going to be affected by rain from Ofel:
Wednesday afternoon, November 13, to Thursday afternoon, November 14
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Isabela
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Aurora , Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao
Thursday afternoon, November 14, to Friday afternoon, November 15
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Isabela, Cagayan
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, Ilocos Sur
Floods and landslides are expected.
In the next 48 hours, there is also a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges “with peak surge heights of 1 to 2 meters” in eastern mainland Cagayan, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
In addition, moderate to rough seas will be experienced in certain seaboards in the next 24 hours.
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Western seaboard of Batanes and Babuyan Islands; seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Remaining seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Region; northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley; western seaboard of Zambales; seaboards of northern Aurora and Kalayaan Islands; northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Northern Samar; eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high
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Meanwhile, Nika was already 365 kilometers west of Calayan, Cagayan, outside PAR, at 4 pm on Tuesday. The tropical storm slightly accelerated, moving northwest at 15 km/h from 10 km/h.
Its maximum sustained winds decreased from 95 km/h to 85 km/h, while its gustiness is now up to 105 km/h from 115 km/h.
PAGASA expects Nika to weaken further into a tropical depression on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, then into a remnant low on Friday afternoon or evening.
At its peak, Nika was a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h. It was downgraded to a severe tropical storm after crossing Aurora, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur on Monday, November 11. Its landfall was in Dilasag, Aurora, at 8:10 am on Monday.
Rain from Nika already stopped earlier as the tropical cyclone moved away from Luzon.
PAGASA also lifted Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Tuesday, so there are no more areas under tropical cyclone wind signals. The highest wind signal raised due to Nika was Signal No. 4.
But the weather bureau said “the channeling of winds coming to Nika from the Luzon Strait” is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to Batanes and Babuyan Islands on Tuesday.
As for storm surges, PAGASA said Nika “no longer poses any threat of storm surge inundation in the coastal areas of the country.”
Nika and Ofel are the Philippines’ 14th and 15th tropical cyclones for 2024. They are also the second and third tropical cyclones for November, coming after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon as well.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi outside PAR. It was located 2,495 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3 pm on Tuesday. It accelerated, moving west at 30 km/h from just 10 km/h.
Man-yi slightly weakened, with its maximum sustained winds decreasing from 85 km/h to 75 km/h. Its gustiness eased from 105 km/h to 90 km/h.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Veronica Torres said the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Man-yi entering PAR in the coming days. – Rappler.com